At the outset it is interesting to note that come elections, economics—growth and development—becomes the favourite whipping boy. The impending polls have garnered more eyeballs than any previous avatars of it primarily for the almost unified focus on one man, his meteoric rise and his rhetorical prowess—Narendra Modi—and, of course, his curiously single-minded emphasis on development. As the unanimously popular Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Modi’s was nominated as the prime ministerial candidate for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), notwithstanding equally efficient work being done by two equally popular men in two traditionally under-developed States, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, perhaps a greater feat than taking an already developed State to another level of growth. A comparison of their development scales as well as their performance on social indicators merits an attempt, which the following paragraphs endeavour to accomplish, to posit an argument about the BJP’s preference for Mr. Modi over either Mr. Chouhan or Dr. Singh.
Arguments and counter arguments notwithstanding, the development debate in the past two decades or so has primarily revolved around India’s growth story, which according to most observers, could be summarily described as an average-to-above-average performance. While there have been periods of great upsurge, plateau levels have also been frequent. The overall growth rate during the 10th Plan period (2002-2007) was 7.2 per cent, arguably the highest growth percentages achieved in any Plan period. 1 Conversely, during the 9th Plan period (1997-2002), the average rate of growth was 5.5 per cent. So, compared to the national economic average, how have States fared on the growth and development index? The answer is quite a mixed bag. Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Haryana have experienced high growth rates in Gross Domestic Product recently. 2 So have States like Gujarat and Delhi with growth rates hovering over the national average. Three of these high-growth States have had Congress governments for the past decade if not more, while Tamil Nadu has witnessed robust development under Chief Minister Jayalalithaa of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). However, only Gujarat has managed to remain in focus and under the lens, particularly since Mr. Modi took over.
It might come as a surprise but two BJP-ruled States, namely Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, have clocked impressive growth rates in recent years, good enough to challenge Gujarat effectively in the economic arena. As per data from the Economic Survey Report (ESR) for 2013-14, Chhattisgarh grew at 7.05 per cent, even though slipping from the 7.56 per cent that the State gained in the previous year of assessment, staying far ahead of the national growth rate. 3 Further, Chhattisgarh’s service sector grew at an impressive 9.09 per cent compared to a national average of 7 per cent. Interestingly, the State has managed to achieve remarkable levels of economic growth despite offering tax relief and subsidies to small and medium enterprises, cottage industries and small dealers to enable them to cope with recession. 4 If Chhattisgarh appears firmly ensconced in its growth train, its territorial neighbour and erstwhile progenitor, Madhya Pradesh — also with a BJP Chief Minister at the helm of affairs for a second term —has recently dislodged Bihar as the State with the highest GDP growth rate — a stupendous 10 per cent (2012-13). 5
A comparison of the overall growth rates in the financial year 2012-13 yields the following data: 6
Here, Gujarat does seem to be ahead, but only marginally so. What really needs to be understood is that we are comparing an upwardly mobile, urbanised and industrially developed State with those that are historically backward and have large rural populations with slow to sluggish industrial and economic development records in the past. Therefore, when viewed against Gujarat if the rate of growth acceleration for Madhya Pradesh is a good six percentage points higher in the latter half of the last decade, while the north-western State remained at about three percentage points higher, it does reflect the inroads made by the incumbent governments in both States. Further, if the previous term of Shivraj Singh Chouhan (2004-05 to 2010-11) is taken into account, Madhya Pradesh seems to have had a sharper turnaround. 7 Considering the figures, it does seem pretty misplaced to encourage a lopsided view of which growth model would take India further on the path of economic advancement. Given the brouhaha over the much-feted ‘Gujarat Model’ with general elections looming and the BJP going to town over the achievements of its Prime Ministerial candidate, it becomes imperative to ask some questions. If both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, both governed by the BJP over the past decade, have affected incredible turnarounds, why is it that the Gujarat Model remains the fulcrum of the BJP’s development agenda?
It is important to note that Mr. Modi’s Gujarat has developed predominantly because of what some might term “abject surrender” to corporates, both through subsidies and multi-crore contracts. 8 On the contrary, Mr. Modi would like us to believe that the model is essentially founded on three fundamental pillars — agriculture, industry and service. Let us, in brief, examine Gujarat’s performance on socio-economic development indices — monthly per capita consumption expenditure; education; health; household amenities; poverty rate; female literacy; percentage of SC/ST population; urbanisation rate; financial inclusion and connectivity.
With growth rate of about 28 per cent and 33 per cent respectively, Gujarat garnered maximum growth in per capita food and non-food consumption expenditure across India in 2004-05 and 2009-10, an ASSOCHAM study stated recently. 9 Gujarat’s impressive economic performance — the gross State domestic product increased from 8 per cent in 2004-05 to 9.8 per cent in 2011-12 — is not matched by its performance in the elementary education sector. The State has fallen sharply by nine places to the 18th rank among 35 States and Union Territories, according to the latest Education Development Index. 10 In what should have been a point to ponder for Mr. Modi, UNICEF described Gujarat as one where social development has not been able to keep pace with economic growth. In an introduction of Gujarat on its official website UNICEF India said, “Almost every second child in Gujarat under the age of five years is undernourished and three out of four are anaemic. Infant and maternal mortality rates have reduced very slowly in the last decade. Also, the preliminary results of Census 2011 show that while there has been a slight improvement in the child sex ratio (0-6 years) from 883 in 2001 to 886 today, the overall sex ratio in the State has declined from 920 to 918 (during the same period).” 11
Urban conglomerations of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Kutch, Rajkot and Jamnagar districts — that accounted for 70 per cent of the investments in Gujarat during the past decade — emerged as critical focal points of female foeticide. According to the Census 2011 figures, the sex ratio is the most skewed against females in the top urban centres of the State. Among all the 26 districts, the ratio is the lowest in Surat, the diamond and textile hub where it stands at 788 females to every 1000 males. In 2001, it was 810. 12 Staying with sex ratio, figures from Madhya Pradesh indicate 931 women for every 1,000 men in the financial year ending 2012. 13 (The national average is 933 women for 1,000 men.) Although the gender ratio seems to be leaning in favour of Madhya Pradesh, the central Indian State ranks highest in a list of female foeticide cases in the country — 132 cases reported annually in 2011. 14
As the Planning Commission’s definition of the poverty line (per capita consumption expenditure of Rs. 32 per day in urban areas) became controversial, umbrage was taken on a similar stand taken by the Gujarat government. The Gujarat food and civil supplies department issued a circular which pegged the poverty line at Rs. 10.80 or below per day in rural areas and Rs. 16.70 or below per day in urban areas followed by first a denial, and then a clarification by the Information Department, which stated that no new guidelines were issued by the State government for identification of families below the poverty line (BPL). It also went on to describe in detail the fact that the government was merely reiterating the guidelines issued by the Union government in 2004 about adding income criterion to poverty definitions. The government’s position on the issue essentially attempted to lean on the Planning Commission’s letter that claims estimation of poor be based on State-wise poverty lines based on the National Sample Survey data round of 1999-2000, which is Rs. 324 for rural areas and Rs .501.14 for urban areas. This translates to Rs. 10.8 per day for rural areas and Rs. 16.7 per day for urban areas. 16
An instance of the fruits of economic development percolating to those living on the margins in Gujarat remains a positive and upward trend in the realm of female literacy. An analysis of the Census data on the various demographic attributes of the population in Gujarat indicates that current female literacy rate in the State stands at 63.31 per cent as compared to the national average of 64.6 per cent. 17 In fact the State has witnessed a phenomenal jump of 12.93 per cent decadal increase in female literacy, overtaking States such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, attributable primarily to the Kanya Kelavani movement, which focuses on sending girl children to schools in the rural areas, and enhancing and improving educational infrastructure in urban areas. Only 54.49 per cent of the female population in Madhya Pradesh is literate with Chhattisgarh coming close behind at 59.56 per cent (as per 2011 Census).
Similar stories of success could be drawn from Chhattisgarh as well. Reports indicate a high level of awareness of welfare schemes like the Mukhyamantri Swasthya Bima Yojana in Chhattisgarh, which lends evidence to the State government’s accessibility and popularity among the masses. 18 The tremendous improvement in the public distribution system of the State brought about by policy initiatives taken by the Raman Singh government has led to Chhattisgarh being labelled a “showcase” State with regard to PDS and its working. State election results in 2013, however, did not indicate a swing in favour of the BJP with the party nosing ahead at the end of what was a tense war of wits between the Congress, fresh from the attack on its senior brass by the Maoists, and the BJP. Presumably, therefore, a great growth performance does not really guarantee a swing in the ultimate vote share, although Mr. Modi might still make it to the Prime Minister’s chair at the end of the day.
A significant part of the argument remains the obvious preference lent to the Gujarat model ahead of the national polls, in comparison with let’s say the Chhattisgarh model or the Madhya Pradesh model. This despite the fact that party strongman and ideologue, L. K. Advani, openly stood in support of Mr. Chouhan being projected as a counter to the Modi phenomenon. The Damocles’ sword of the 2002 riots has still not left the strategic position it has acquired over Mr. Modi’s head. But the Parivar roots for a development agenda for India modelled on the quasi-corporate conglomerate culture being fostered in Gujarat through liberal open vistas for a long haul. With competitive communalism on one hand and the dream of a corporatised India on the other, the BJP seems to be serving up a red-hot Molotov cocktail.
That, however, still does not explain the BJP’s preference for the Modi bandwagon, despite Mr. Singh and Mr. Chouhan effecting remarkable turnarounds in their respective States. What does lend it some credence and credibility is the Parivar’s penchant for its own — Mr. Modi becomes the natural choice with his swayamsewak and pracharak background blended quite well with his brahmachari avatar. To give credit where due, it must be said that Mr. Modi has very admirably veered the intra-party opinion in his favour with help from the RSS of course, so much so that anti-Modi thoughts are made public only in the realm of cyberspace, if ever. The rise of Mr. Modi within the BJP’s rank and file defines the inroads the RSS is making into active politics. Reports suggest the cadre is preparing for a long campaign under the sun — and their mascot unmistakably is the go-to man for development and growth — Narendra Modi. The inherent flaws with the Gujarat model notwithstanding, the Parivar seems to be in no mood to relent.
Further, the general disillusionment with two terms of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) rule have led to a feeling — it would be presumptuous to qualify it as a “wave” — that it perhaps would be prudent to give the other national coalition a chance. With the advent of Mr. Modi, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) lost an earnest partner in the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)].Have they made up lost ground by aligning with Lok Janshakti Party? Only time will tell. Particularly compelling too is the fact that the partners that remain with the NDA have decided to toe the Modi line, which perhaps is smart politics given the current atmosphere.
Besides allegations of rampant corruption and ineffective governance against the incumbent UPA, the BJP’s agenda for change principally hinges on two fundamental principles. First, the absence of religio-political rhetoric in its campaign strategy and second, an almost fanatical insistence on ‘development’ as a poll plank. Whatever might be the case behind the scenes, but the vehemently majoritarian party seems to have kept its saffron campaign aside in favour of a growth and development oriented strategy. It, therefore, emerges quite clearly that the development agenda that has been brought to the fore mainly with regard to the BJP this election season is not the real cause of the “Modi wave”, at least within the BJP for two modest reasons — first, as is evident, there are imminent drawbacks in the Gujarat model, primarily with regard to the benefits of development filtering down to the lowest common denominator in the State as well as its impact on social indicators; and second, Gujarat has historically been an exemplar in the field of industrial and business development given the typical Gujarati penchant for business and profits, which essentially provided Mr. Modi with a fantastic launch-pad.
Needless to say, the enlargement in popularity and the upswing of support for the BJP is good news for competitive politics and, to talk in terms of the larger picture, for parliamentary democracy in India. A more inclusive and cohesive BJP could well provide a reliable political alternative to the Congress, which is currently reeling under the onslaught of not only scandalous revelations of all hues and shades, but also severely adverse projections just a month before the country goes to the polls. Milan Vaishnav, South Asia Associate at the Washington, D.C.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, projects a record vote share for the BJP at the hustings, with significant vote swings coming the party’s way. 19 It may well be the NDA’s third chance at running a country that has pretty much been a single-party system albeit with its unique features, hues and motifs. The transformation from a single-party to a multi-party system, however, must be based on concrete performance on all parameters — political, social, economic and human. The BJP has been struggling to fill the vacuum created by a retreating Congress, but it can only do so effectively if it modifies the model of growth to “include” communities, classes, castes and groups, and not “exclude” communities, classes, castes and groups. The agenda for inclusion cannot remain within silos and limited to particular communities, castes and classes. The Gujarat government is often accused of limiting the fruits of development to a few beneficiaries and excluding large groups of citizens. It is vital that the national growth and development agenda — be it one formulated by the Congress or a programme of action focussed upon by the BJP — is multi-dimensional, cross-cultural, comprehensive, non-discriminatory, deliverable and focussed in real, solid growth and not on the next outing at the voting booths.
References:
1 Planning Commission. 2006. Towards Faster and More Inclusive Growth: an approach to the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012), p. 1. New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of India. Details available on http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/app11_16jan.pdf . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
2 Nigam, Shipra. 2013. Gujarat and the Illusion of Development. Details available on http://kafila.org/2013/05/23/gujarat-and-the-illusion-of-development-shipra-nigam/ . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
3 Times of India. 2014. State grows at 7.05%: Economic survey report. Details available on http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/raipur/State-grows-at-7-05-Economic-survey-report/articleshow/30013031.cms? . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
4 Times of India. 2014.Chhattisgarh budget offers relief to Industries. Details available on http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/raipur/Chhattisgarh-budget-offers-relief-to-Industries/articleshow/30095354.cms . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
5 Times of India. 2013. Madhya Pradesh topples Bihar, new No. 1 in economic growth. Details available on http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Madhya-Pradesh-topples-Bihar-new-No-1-in-economic-growth/articleshow/19282822.cms . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
6 Details available on http://planningcommission.gov.in/data/datatable/1612/table_158.pdf . Last accessed on March 25, 2014.
7 Mint. 2014. Is Shivraj Chauhan’s economic performance better than Narendra Modi’s? Details available on http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/h9phr9gLCJ3fdZyrgSLGLI/Is-Shivraj-Chauhans-economic-performance-better-than-Narend.html . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
8 Hensman, Rohini. 2014. “The Gujarat Model of Development: what would it do to the economy?” Economic and Political Weekly. XLIX (11). Details available on http://www.epw.in/web-exclusives/gujarat-model-development.html . Last accessed on March 25, 2014.
9 Gujarat registers maximum growth in per-capita food, non-food & FMCG consumption expenditure: ASSOCHAM. Details available on http://www.assocham.org/prels/shownews-archive.php?id=3928 and https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/States/gujarat-spends-more-on-food-household-goods/article4500975.ece . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
10 The Economic Times. 2014. Gujarat drops in annual educational development index. Details available on http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-01-15/news/46224545_1_pupil-teacher-ratio-education-development-index-pupilteacher-ratio . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
11 Business Standard. 2013. UNICEF says Gujarat social indicators not keeping pace with economic development. Details available on http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/unicef-says-gujarat-social-indicators-not-keeping-pace-with-economic-development-113070800662_1.html . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
12 Financial Express. 2012. Sex ratio dips to a new low in ‘vibrant’ Gujarat. Details available on http://www.financialexpress.com/news/sex-ratio-dips-to-a-new-low-in-vibrant-gujarat/926305 . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
13 Details available on http://www.census2011.co.in/census/State/madhya+pradesh.html . Last accessed on March 25, 2014.
14 Central Statistics Office. 2012. Children in India 2012: a statistical appraisal. New Delhi: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. Details available on http://mospi.nic.in/mospi_new/upload/Children_in_India_2012.pdf . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
15 Details available on http://www.census2011.co.in/census/State/chhattisgarh.html . Last accessed on March 25, 2014.
16 Mint. 2014. The Gujarat Poverty Line Controversy Explained. Details available on http://www.livemint.com/Politics/fUl5tkUOKxU0cJ8WKrep9K/The-Gujarat-poverty-line-controversy-explained.html . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
17 DNA. 2011. Analysis: Gujarat female literacy up 12.93% , KanyaKelavani a hit. Details available on http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/comment-analysis-gujarat-female-literacy-up-1293-kanya-kelavani-a-hit-1594601 . Last accessed on March 19, 2014. Also, http://www.census2011.co.in/census/State/gujarat.html. Last accessed on March 25, 2014.
18 India Today. 2013. Chhattisgarh polls: Survey favours third term for Chief Minister Raman Singh. Details available on http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chhattisgarh-polls-survey-favours-third-term-for-chief-minister-raman-singh/1/321801.html . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.
19 Vaishnav, Milan. 2014. India Election: is there a surge of support for Narendra Modi? Details available on http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/02/25/india-election-is-there-surge-of-support-for-narendra-modi/h1u4 . Last accessed on March 19, 2014.