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‘Opinion polls are an approximation of public sentiment’

Rattling a box filled with 100 paper slips with the number seven or eight written on them, Rajeeva L Karandikar, a psephologist, asked a member of the audience to pick one.

The number turned out to be seven.

Displaying the sheet, he said: “In fact, 99 of the papers bear one number, with one slip being the exception.”

Now, tell me if it was seven or eight that constitutes the majority, he asked. The answer: You should not hazard a guess, and it would be imprudent to conclude it was seven because eight did stand a chance too. But one can be 99 per cent sure that the odd one out will be left out of the reckoning.

Source: The Hindu Business Line, CHENNAI, March 7, 2014

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https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/politics/opinion-polls-are-an-approximation-of-public-sentiment/article5757593.ece

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